DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160536
SWODY1
SPC AC 160534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN
NEW ENGLAND...

...NERN STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT MOVING INTO NY. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FROM NEW JERSEY NNEWD INTO VERMONT WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES REACHING THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT SHOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WHERE THE CELLS REMAIN DISCRETE. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF SUPERCELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE...THEN
A LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST. THE GREATER THREAT COULD BE FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. A SEVERE THREAT
MAY EXTEND SWWD INTO ERN PA AND NJ ALONG THE AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY BUT STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH.

...ERN CAROLINAS/SE GA/NE FL...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES
AND CAROLINAS TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY
FROM NRN FL NEWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS WHERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD EXIST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHERE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR
THE PEAK IN DESTABILIZATION.

..BROYLES/COHEN.. 05/16/2012

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