DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 160545
SWODY2
SPC AC 160544

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF COAST WILL
APPROACH THE ERN GULF COAST REGION BY THU. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE SRN GREAT BASIN WILL DAMPEN AS IT REACHES THE SRN ROCKIES THU
MORNING AND DRIFTS EWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OCCURRING
DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST. LEE SURFACE
TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE BULK OF THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH A
LLJ NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY.

...CNTRL/SRN FL...
A SWATH OF 25-40 KT WLYS AT 500 MB SHOULD BE PREVALENT OVER MOST OF
THE PENINSULA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK TROUGH. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN POOR...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER INSOLATION/HEATING
COUPLED WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN
MODEST BUOYANCY AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD FORM AND MAY YIELD
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LLJ ON D1 WILL LEAD TO POLEWARD
TRANSPORT OF A MARGINALLY MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE SRN PLAINS...WITH
WEAK RETURN FLOW NOT COMMENCING UNTIL LATE D2 ALONG THE WRN GULF
COAST. AS SUCH...SURFACE DEW POINTS /ALTHOUGH INCREASING/ SHOULD BE
RATHER LOW FOR A TYPICAL PLAINS WARM SECTOR...WHICH APPEARS BEST
HANDLED BY THE 00Z NAM COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS MAY FORM ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH AT PEAK HEATING. BUT WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A
PULSE-TYPE MODE AND THE THREAT FOR DRY MICROBURSTS APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. A SEPARATE AREA OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD NOCTURNALLY FORM WITH A LOW-LEVEL WAA
REGIME IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PARCELS WOULD HAVE ONLY MODEST SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING
LAYER...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL.

..GRAMS.. 05/16/2012

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