MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0764

ACUS11 KWNS 091656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091656
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-091900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AZ...SWRN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091656Z - 091900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO POSE A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW OVER NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
PROMOTING AN INCREASED THREAT OF STG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WHILE A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..BUNTING/MEAD/LEITMAN.. 05/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 31300942 31321109 31821264 32431299 33421245 33851155
33860985 33440868 32960729 32030649 31780654 31750824
31300822 31300942

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