MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0765

ACUS11 KWNS 091659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091659
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-091900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN SC/SRN GA/PARTS OF NRN FL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE/FAR SERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091659Z - 091900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD PERMIT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. DEGREE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE WW
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS -- AND THUS ONGOING HEATING/DESTABILIZATION -- FROM SERN
SC WSWWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES NOW INTO THE 1000 TO
1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA...SUPPORTING A CONVECTIVE INCREASE
OBSERVED IN BOTH RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

WHILE THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS AREA REMAINS MODEST --
FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WSW AND LESS THAN 30
KT THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE...MODEST INCREASES IN
MID-LEVEL FLOW ARE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SEWD WITH
TIME THUS INCREASING THE HEIGHT GRADIENT.

GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF FURTHER/MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND SOME
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD...A FEW STRONGER
STORMS SHOULD BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINAL HAIL AND
LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS EVOLUTION COULD REQUIRE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE -- POSSIBLY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 32728061 31018138 30728181 29658506 30378621 31508515
32468248 33058116 32728061

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