DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 162002
SWODY1
SPC AC 162000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST CO...ACROSS MUCH
OF OK...THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...INTO LOWER MI......

...IA/MO/IL/WI/MI...
SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO
INTO IL/INDIANA AT MID-AFTERNOON WITHIN AN UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF AN MCV NEAR NORTHWEST MO. ONLY OUTLOOK
CHANGE WAS TO INTRODUCE A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND
PROBABILITIES PER SEVERE TSTM WATCHES 400/401.

...SOUTHEAST CO TO TX/OK PANHANDLES...
LIMITED SPATIAL ADJUSTMENTS TO EXISTING SLIGHT RISK WERE MADE TO
ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS NEAR THE CO FRONT RANGE...BUT
SCENARIO OTHERWISE REMAINS AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

...OK...
NO CHANGES...SEE PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW.

...FAR EAST/NORTHEAST MN AND NORTHWEST WI...
RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INCREASE
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA/NORTHERN MN. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS/SOME
HAIL.

..GUYER.. 06/16/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012/

...IA/MO/IL/WI/MI...
SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SERIES OF REMNANT MCVS OVER PARTS OF
NEB/KS/OK. THESE FEATURES HAVE BEEN WEAKENING THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST IN SUFFICIENT STRENGTH INTO THE
AFTERNOON TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF IA/MO.
THE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000
J/KG NOTED. EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG
ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT THE HBR PROFILER NEAR ICT SHOWED A PRONOUNCED
MID LEVEL REAR-INFLOW JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV A FEW HOURS AGO.
THIS MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION INTO A BOWING SEGMENT LATER
TODAY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL FORM FIRST OVER
NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA AND TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI AND PERHAPS INTO
LOWER MI TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT...AS WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TEND TO WEAKEN UPDRAFTS AND
LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.

...OK...
THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION NOW STRETCHES
E-W ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND IS DISSIPATING. THIS REGION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SUGGESTING SLOW MOVING MULTICELL
STORMS. HOWEVER...HIGH CAPE VALUES AND PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.

...SOUTHEAST CO INTO TX/OK PANHANDLES...
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ON BACK SIDE OF
OVERNIGHT MCS...HELPING TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST CO. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THIS CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. EASTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

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