MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1188

ACUS11 KWNS 162002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162002
OKZ000-TXZ000-162130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 162002Z - 162130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW TX AND CNTRL OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS ARE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ANTICIPATED ISOLATED/BRIEF
NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NW TX FROM THE LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS AMID
A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FARTHER NE /ACROSS CNTRL OK/...THE
AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A MORE AGITATED CB FIELD...SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION
MAY OCCUR SOON. THE WEAKLY SHEARED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
/0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AOB 20 KT AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG PER
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/ ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT STRONG BUT BRIEF
PULSE CONVECTION. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS W TX SUGGESTS
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS /ALSO SUPPORTED BY DCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1200 J/KG PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/ WITH A SECONDARY
THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL. BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACROSS CNTRL OK APPEAR MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A PRIMARY
THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF STRONG WINDS. ONE
ADDITIONAL ITEM OF NOTE...LATEST RAP-BASED MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS
MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL OK. A CLOSER LOOK
AT THE RAP SOUNDINGS REVEALS A SUPER-ADIABATIC LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE...CAUSING THE ANALYZED TEMPERATURE TO BE A FEW DEGREE HIGHER
THAN OBSERVED. ANTICIPATED ISOLATED/BRIEF NATURE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW BUT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

..MOSIER/HART.. 06/16/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 33680115 33940012 34369921 35119889 36309876 36949835
36599654 34329697 32959827 32800104 33680115

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