MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1322

ACUS11 KWNS 302034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302034
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-302200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NE...SWRN IA...NWRN MO...FAR NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302034Z - 302200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CONTINUED SLOW INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH A THREAT
OF SCATTERED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. SEVERE COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...AT 20Z...A GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING BAND OF CONVECTION
BETWEEN BBW AND ONL IN N-CNTRL NE WAS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD...WITH
A SECOND CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NOTED NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER OVER
WEBSTER/NUCKOLLS COUNTY. BOTH CLUSTERS ARE NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER NRN KS AND IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK VORT MAX NOTED ON WV
IMAGERY MOVING INTO THE NE PANHANDLE.

THUS FAR...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LARGELY ELEVATED AND DISORGANIZED.
WHILE CONTINUED HEATING WILL WEAKEN CINH FOR SURFACE BASED
PARCELS...SOME CAPPING IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER THIS AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG BUOYANCY...WITH MU CAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA. WHILE FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY WEAK...ELY SFC
FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT VEERING TO WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 25-35 KTS...RESULTING IN A THREAT OF
MULTICELLS OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT.
CURRENT LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION WOULD NOT SUPPORT WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT
ANY UPSCALE GROWTH OF CURRENT CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT AN
ENHANCED SEVERE WIND RISK AND PERHAPS NECESSITATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 06/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 39709833 40099939 40400022 40860183 42159971 42539849
42529738 42239630 41629551 40639469 39879457 39649517
39579651 39709833

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