MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1324

ACUS11 KWNS 302053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302053
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-302230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302053Z - 302230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CONTINUED INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF
SCATTERED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND

DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE CELL HAS DEVELOPED OVER CUSTER COUNTY
SD...WITH ADDITIONAL RECENT DEVELOPMENT NOTED OVER NWRN SD ALONG A
SFC WIND SHIFT AXIS. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND A WEAK
VORT MAX MOVING FROM WY INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE BLACK HILLS
NEWD. WHILE FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY WEAK...FLOW VEERING FROM NELY AT
THE SFC TO WLY ALOFT IS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF
30-40 KTS. THIS SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE MU CAPE OF 1000-2000
J/KG WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...AS HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED IN CUSTER COUNTY. BOTH HAIL
AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS...WITH A POTENTIALLY
ENHANCED WIND RISK ASSOCIATED WITH ANY UPSCALE GROWTH OF CURRENT
CONVECTION. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 06/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 42950415 43790418 45050338 46030211 46370098 45690013
44689972 43630026 43120187 42950415

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