DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190547
SWODY1
SPC AC 190545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL STRETCH FROM THE PLAINS TO THE E
COAST WITH A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE MS/OH VALLEY WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL EXIST FROM NERN TX EWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
SERN VA AT 00Z. AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY DURING THE DAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SC DURING THE
DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND TRAVELING NEWD ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER.

TO THE W...WEAK SLY UPSLOPE BENEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A
FEW STRONG STORMS OVER NRN NM.

...SC/NC...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM NRN GA
INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. S OF THE
BOUNDARY...HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE
POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL
RESULT IN FAVORABLE SHEAR TO ORGANIZE STORMS AS THEY STRADDLE THE
BOUNDARY...WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINAL HAIL THREAT ON THE WARM
SIDE. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE FRONT COULD ALSO ENCOURAGE
AREAS OF ROTATION AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED STORMS MAY AFFECT FAR SERN VA DURING THE
EVENING. THE POSSIBILITY OF NUMEROUS STORMS AND ONGOING AREAS OF
RAIN MAY MITIGATE SEVERE COVERAGE TO A DEGREE...BUT AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY.

...AR INTO NRN LA...
STRONG HEATING AND RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL YIELD UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WITH STORMS FORMING IN A WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ACROSS SRN MO INTO WRN AR. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PRODUCE LONG
ENOUGH HODOGRAPHS FOR A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

...WRN PA/NY...ERN OH...
A TIGHT MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL EXTEND FROM KY INTO SRN
NEW ENGLAND...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16 C FROM OH INTO WRN
PA DURING THE DAY. A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS MAY BE LOW TOPPED...BUT COOL AIR ALOFT AND
SHEAR MAY FAVOR SOME HAIL.

...NRN NM...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SFC
WINDS WILL VEER TO SLY DURING THE DAY...CREATING GOOD DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITH HEIGHT. A FEW SWD MOVING HAIL STORMS ARE LIKELY.

..JEWELL/COHEN.. 08/19/2012

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