DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 190554
SWODY2
SPC AC 190553

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE DEEP SOUTH. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON
MON AFTERNOON.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A WEAK MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE PROGRESSING SEWD BETWEEN THE WRN RIDGE AND CNTRL/ERN CONUS
TROUGH ON MON. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLY TIMED WITH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE AND WILL LIKELY YIELD TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE LEE OF
THE SRN ROCKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN A WEAKLY BUOYANT AIR MASS.
ALTHOUGH FLOW FIELDS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST...NEARLY STRAIGHT-LINE
HODOGRAPHS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES INITIALLY. DESPITE ONLY MODEST BUOYANCY...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND BE SUSTAINED INTO MON NIGHT AS A
30-40 KT LLJ FORMS...WITH MARGINAL THREATS FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND INTO
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

...SOUTHEAST/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...
GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
DEPICTION...ALTHOUGH DISCREPANCIES REMAIN WITH THE FORECAST
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. NEVERTHELESS...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARD THE LESS UNSTABLE SPECTRUM WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED IN REGIONAL 00Z RAOBS AND AT
LEAST SCATTERED PRECEDING CONVECTION ON D1. EVEN WHERE STRONGER
POCKETS OF HEATING OCCUR ON MON...MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 1000
J/KG. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH 30-50 KT SWLYS AT 500
MB...LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE WEAK. AS SUCH...TSTM CLUSTERS MAY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN THE
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET CENTERED ALONG THE
BREADTH OF THE APPALACHIANS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO
SUSTAIN HIGH INTENSITY AND MAY ONLY YIELD SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS.

..GRAMS.. 08/19/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.