DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 070602
SWODY2
SPC AC 070600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY A MEAN TROUGH
OVER THE ERN U.S. AND A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES SWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION. SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS REGIME INCLUDING IMPULSE NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND SWRN
CANADA THAT WILL CREST UPPER RIDGE AND REACH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SFC DEEPER BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM SERN CANADA INTO
THE OH VALLEY THEN NWWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS OF MT WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAKER PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY
FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO OK. A N-S BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD THROUGH NEB/KS AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO IMPULSE ADVANCING SEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY.

...MID MS VALLEY REGION...

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER A PORTION OF THE MID-UPPER MS
VALLEY WHERE SEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT ASCENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE E-W FRONT. RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS REGION TO THE SOUTH OF THE SERN U.S.
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL RESIDE ON ERN FRINGE OF STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SOME DIABATIC WARMING WILL LIKELY OCCUR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ONGOING STORMS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP AND
ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH IA AND MO WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW REGIME. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED AND A SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ONCE
MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

...NERN STATES...

MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT A GRADUAL MOISTENING SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 50S TO
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
AND A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE CAP
WEAKENS. MODEST FLOW ALOFT WITHIN BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN.

...ERN KS INTO ERN OK...

IT STILL APPEARS THAT ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ACROSS
THE REGION WITHIN A RELATIVELY HOT/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
PROMOTED BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THE E-W SYNOPTIC FRONT AND
AN EVOLVING NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS KS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK...BUT ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS DO
OCCUR.

..DIAL.. 08/07/2012

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