DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 070732
SWODY3
SPC AC 070730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY...OH
VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT MID LEVEL JET DROP SEWD THROUGH THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION. AT THE SFC...PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXTEND
FROM SERN CANADA THROUGH NRN PARTS OF OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-UPPER
MS VALLEY. A WEAK SFC WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE OVER THE
OH VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE SWD DURING THE DAY.

...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE NERN STATES...

PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS LOW-MID 60S
DEWPOINTS ADVECT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES. ONLY MODEST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED...BUT DIABATIC WARMING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY. STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. THOUGH STRONGEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL...THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES. PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL BE
MULTICELLULAR FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES WITH A THREAT
OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SPREAD SEWD
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEWD ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN THIS
REGION INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...BUT STORMS WILL LIKELY
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING. DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

..DIAL.. 08/07/2012

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