DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 221705
SWODY2
SPC AC 221704

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2012

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...

SPLIT HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD WITH
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER NRN BRANCH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO CNTRL MT LATE WITH A NOTABLE BUT
LESS AMPLIFIED FEATURE EXPECTED INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 24/00Z.
FARTHER SOUTH...MUCH WEAKER HIGH LEVEL CURRENT WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS WHERE
500MB FLOW WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 15KT.

GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME IT APPEARS AN ELONGATED
LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TX...NWD INTO
NEB BEFORE ARCING NEWD INTO MN WHERE IT WILL BE DISPLACED DOWNSTREAM
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THIS LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
STRONG OR EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT WEAK...MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL
ORGANIZATION...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENCOURAGE DEEP
CONVECTIVE THERMALS BY PEAK HEATING SUCH THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF EACH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...BOTH ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF SWRN NEB INTO WEST TX.
THE GREATEST RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...ELSEWHERE...

ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS THE NRN
GULF BASIN/GULF COAST INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MODULATED BY
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. AT
THIS TIME THE PROSPECT FOR SEVERE ACROSS THE SERN U.S. IS TOO
NEGLIGIBLE TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS.

..DARROW.. 08/22/2012

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