MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1798

ACUS11 KWNS 221657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221656
FLZ000-221900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1798
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221656Z - 221900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE ANTICIPATED ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE RISK WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF A SLOW-MOVING/QUASI-ORGANIZED TSTM
COMPLEX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COMPLEX/ASSOCIATED COLD POOL NEAR AND PARALLEL TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR
AS OF 1645Z...INCLUDING THE OCALA VICINITY TO NEAR/NORTHEAST OF THE
TAMPA-ST PETERBURG AREAS. WITH AMPLE INSOLATION AND A MOIST AIRMASS
/GENERALLY LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AHEAD OF THESE
STORMS...INHIBITION CONTINUES TO STEADILY ERODE COINCIDENT WITH
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION /1000-2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THAT MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL OVER THE
PAST 24 HR PER 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS. WITH A CONTINUED SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE EXISTING TSTM COMPLEX EXPECTED...SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND/OR NEW DEVELOPING
PERIPHERAL TSTMS SEEMS PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION. LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE VIA WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 29458213 29648157 29318099 29148079 28348052 27678062
27658200 27878239 28288189 28988173 29458213

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