DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 250732
SWODY3
SPC AC 250730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO MONDAY
OVER THE CONUS/CANADA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF A RE-INTENSIFYING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AN AMPLIFYING
BELT OF WESTERLIES OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY AN EASTWARD MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC...AND A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY...ISAAC WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTING
FL/COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE.

...MUCH OF FL/GULF COAST REGION...
REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST FORECAST
TRACK/INTENSITY INFORMATION FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC...BUT CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR ISAAC TO POTENTIALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/NEAR FL ON MONDAY. IN TANDEM WITH THIS
SCENARIO...IT IS LIKELY THAT AN INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD WILL ACCOMPANY ISAAC ON ITS EASTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY AS IT
MAKES A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESSION. AS SUCH...IT
APPEARS THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ON
MONDAY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE FL PENINSULA.

...DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST...
ISOLATED TSTMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION NEAR A FRONT AND/OR
WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME. A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY STRONG/SEVERE
TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.

...NORTHEAST STATES...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER EASTERN CANADA AND HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR...UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE CONSIDERATION OF
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 08/25/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.