ACUS48 KWNS 250901
SWOD48
SPC AC 250900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LIKELY
PERSISTENCE OF A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED BELT OF WESTERLIES OVER CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
MODEL VARIABILITY REGARDING LOWER AMPLITUDE FEATURES INCREASES BY
MID-WEEK /DAY 5/ AND BEYOND.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD WILL RELATED TO THE
PROBABLE LANDFALL/INLAND MOVEMENT OF ISAAC ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION/SOUTHEAST STATES BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
TRACK/INTENSITY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERIPHERAL OUTER
BANDS/EVENTUAL REMNANTS OF ISAAC...A TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FL/GA/AL ON DAY
4/TUESDAY...AND A SEVERE RISK AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR THIS
SCENARIO. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE INTO DAYS 5-6
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
STATES...ALTHOUGH VARIABILITY/UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MARKEDLY BY THIS
TIME FRAME REGARDING THE DETAILS.
ELSEWHERE...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST MID INTO LATE
WEEK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND/OR UPPER MIDWEST.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE FORECAST ADVANCEMENT OF A
LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
..GUYER.. 08/25/2012
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