ACUS48 KWNS 200835
SWOD48
SPC AC 200834
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2012
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CROSSING THE SRN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES AND PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY ON
D4...GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A MORE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SWRN CANADA/FAR NWRN CONUS AND THEN
INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY
ON TIMING OF THIS LATTER IMPULSE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOTABLY 12-24 HR
FASTER THAN MOST OTHER DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
NEVERTHELESS...THE ATTENDANT BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS APPEAR TO
BE SPATIALLY REMOVED FROM THE WARM SECTOR/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
N-CNTRL CONUS. AS SUCH...SEVERE PROBABILITIES AOA 30 PERCENT ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED DESPITE LOW TEMPORAL PREDICTABILITY.
..GRAMS.. 08/20/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment