ACUS11 KWNS 201629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201628
FLZ000-GAZ000-201800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1792
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH FL/EXTREME SOUTHEAST GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 201628Z - 201800Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FL AS WELL
AS EXTREME SOUTHEAST FL. DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WATCH.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER. ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS ZONE...THE AMBIENT
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE MOIST WITH LOWER-MIDDLE 70S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STEADILY WARM THROUGH THE 80S
F...VIRTUALLY NO CINH EXISTS WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2500
J/KG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY STRONG PER
12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM TLH/JAX AND MORE CONTEMPORARY WSR-88D
VWP DATA...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KT. AS UPDRAFTS
MATURE...THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT
SUPERCELLS/SMALL BOWING STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE.
..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/20/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 29058269 29798355 30198392 30718322 30668145 29458144
29048256 29058269
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