MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1792

ACUS11 KWNS 201634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201634 COR
FLZ000-GAZ000-201800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1792
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH FL/EXTREME SOUTHEAST GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201634Z - 201800Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FL AS WELL
AS EXTREME SOUTHEAST GA. DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER. ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS ZONE...THE AMBIENT
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE MOIST WITH LOWER-MIDDLE 70S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STEADILY WARM THROUGH THE 80S
F...VIRTUALLY NO CINH EXISTS WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2500
J/KG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY STRONG PER
12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM TLH/JAX AND MORE CONTEMPORARY WSR-88D
VWP DATA...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KT. AS UPDRAFTS
MATURE...THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT
SUPERCELLS/SMALL BOWING STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29058269 29798355 30198392 30718322 30668145 29458144
29048256 29058269

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