DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151204
SWODY1
SPC AC 151202

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH SITUATED FROM WRN NY TO CNTRL QUEBEC THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY SHIFT E/NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE A LIMITED
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY ACROSS ERN MAINE AS SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY
TRACKS EWD INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. FURTHER SW...A WEAK TROUGH POSITIONED
OVER W TX AND NRN MEXICO WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY IN
VICINITY OF SFC TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE REGION AND MAY HELP TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WRN MT MOUNTAINS.

...ERN MAINE...
LIMITED SFC HEATING THROUGH BROKEN CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION. AS UPPER SHORTWAVE
ENCROACHES ON THE REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WEAK SBCAPE /LESS THAN 750 J PER
KG/...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW
FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND REPORT BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
LIMITED TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

...ARKLATEX...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN VICINITY OF SFC TROUGH AXIS FROM WRN
AR INTO ERN TX. POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION/SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH MAINLY PULSE-TYPE
CONVECTION EXPECTED.

..LEITMAN/GUYER.. 09/15/2012

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