ACUS48 KWNS 150830
SWOD48
SPC AC 150829
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
HIGH-AMPLITUDE/SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP FROM HUDSON BAY
SWD ACROSS TN VALLEY TO N-CENTRAL/NWRN GULF DAY-4. BY
19/00Z...ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...DESCRIBED IN DAY-2/DAY-3
OUTLOOKS...SHOULD REACH INLAND MID-ATLC REGION AND CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS...PERHAPS AS FAR E AS VA-GA PIEDMONT REGION. STG
LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR...WITH PREFRONTAL 60S DEW
POINTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPPER 60S TO 70S FROM COASTAL
MID-ATLC SWD. LIKELY STG COMPONENT OF FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL TO FRONT
MAY BE ONE LIMITING FACTOR...AS WOULD BE MRGL LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
HOWEVER...JUXTAPOSITION OF INCREASING WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE WITH
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ALOFT SHOULD YIELD CORRIDOR OF
CONCENTRATED LOW-CAPE/STG-SHEAR SVR THREAT...MAINLY DAMAGING WIND.
DAY-5/19TH/20TH...SVR WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTENING/DIURNAL HEATING CAN OCCUR TO
YIELD AT LEAST MRGL PREFRONTAL CAPE. HOWEVER...GREATER UNCERTAINTY
ON SPEED/TIMING OF FROPA PRECLUDES SPECIFIC 30% UNCONDITIONAL-SVR
LINE ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 09/15/2012
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