DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060445
SWODY1
SPC AC 060443

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING ACROSS A LARGE
PART OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS BENEATH BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGH...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE EWD/SWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE EXCEPT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN STATES.
WEAK INSTABILITY AND SFC-FRONTAL OR POST-SFC-FRONTAL ASCENT WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED NON-SEVERE STORMS FROM ERN OK AND NERN TX ENEWD TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND FARTHER NE INTO NEW ENGLAND. STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATER ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...WHERE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

...FL PENINSULA...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE WEST AND EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS BY MID-AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING
INCREASES. CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD TOWARD INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA WHILE BECOMING NUMEROUS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A MODEST
WLY COMPONENT OF THE FLOW WITHIN THE MID/UPPER PORTIONS OF THE CLOUD
LAYER MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO SUPPORT SOME CELL ADVECTION TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SHOULD FOSTER STRONG INSTABILITY AMIDST A
WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. AND...WITH 1.7-2.0-INCH PW...STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS FROM WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE LIKELY.
HOWEVER...GENERALLY WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES INDICATE
THAT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH ANY SVR THREAT
MINIMAL. ACCORDINGLY...SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN INTRODUCED AT
THIS TIME.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 10/06/2012

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