DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 030526
SWODY2
SPC AC 030525

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT WED OCT 03 2012

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES...

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 150-180M IN 12HR...WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS TOWARD LOWER MI. BOTH THE
NAM/GFS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN AND THE SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT OF SFC FRONT TO A POSITION FROM
WRN LOWER MI...SWWD INTO NCNTRL TX BY 05/00Z. WHILE DEEP CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY THE NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY REGION...MORE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SRN FRINGE OF THE WIND
SHIFT ACROSS NCNTRL TX INTO ERN OK. STRONG HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED
TO REMOVE A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WILL BE
INADEQUATE FOR SFC-BASED FREE CONVECTION. AS A RESULT TSTMS WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND IT/S NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER POST-FRONTAL BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT STRONG
ENOUGH UPDRAFTS FOR SEVERE HAIL. WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBS AT
THIS TIME BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ROBUST TSTMS COULD EVOLVE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...NERN U.S...

WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF EJECTING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY INDUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NERN U.S. THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER
SUBSTANTIAL...POOR LAPSE RATES AND SOMEWHAT WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW
SUGGEST SEVERE PROBS ARE NOT WARRANTED ACROSS THIS REGION.

...FL...

ISOLATED-SCT TSTMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP WITHIN VERY MOIST PLUME
THAT HAS YET TO BE SHUNTED AWAY FROM THE FL PENINSULA...THOUGH
ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL REGIONS. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...STRONGER UPDRAFTS
SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING THE DAY WHEN PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD AID
STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..DARROW.. 10/03/2012

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