MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2032

ACUS11 KWNS 120819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120819
TXZ000-NMZ000-120945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM / WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 120819Z - 120945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. A WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OTERO...LINCOLN...CHAVES...AND EDDY COUNTIES IN SERN NM. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING FORCED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION
PROGRESSING NNEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL NM /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WITH
STORMS PROBABLY ROOTED ABOVE THE CAP OBSERVED AROUND 770 MB ON THE
00Z MAF SOUNDING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN EML /I.E. 700-500-MB
LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C PER KM/ AND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM
MODES...INCLUDING SPORADIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY
HAIL.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE
STORMS...SO THE DURATION OF THE THREAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. SHOULD
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THIS HAIL THREAT WOULD APPROACH THE NM-TX
STATE LINE AROUND 12Z.

..MEAD.. 10/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 33730510 34160381 34200324 34050289 33220279 32810273
32490296 32240346 32060420 32110464 32440507 33060525
33730510

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