MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2033

ACUS11 KWNS 120820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120819
AZZ000-121015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 120819Z - 121015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER ERN AZ NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY POSE AT LEAST A MODEST
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNLESS MORE STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION OR INTENSIFICATION.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER ERN AZ
WITHIN ZONE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEP ASCENT EAST OF SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SRN CA. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER
50S WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AT ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 5K AND
6K FT SUPPORTING WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AOB 300 J/KG. FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT SHOULD OCCUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EAST AND
THIS MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MODEST DESTABILIZATION THIS
MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FROM MODEL
POINT FCST SOUNDINGS...STORMS ARE PROBABLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
WITH 65 KT AT 500 MB...50+ KT EFFECTIVE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
200-250 M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY BASED ON OBSERVED STORM
MOTIONS. THE WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND LIKELIHOOD THAT
STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WILL PROBABLY SERVE AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
MORNING.

..DIAL/MEAD.. 10/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 35960963 35190920 33490979 33591067 35731060 35960963

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