MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2042

ACUS11 KWNS 130435
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130434
TXZ000-NMZ000-130600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2042
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST NM AND TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 660...

VALID 130434Z - 130600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 660 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 660 CONTINUES UNTIL 07Z ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NM/TX SOUTH PLAINS. THE TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH...ALTHOUGH SOME SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...EARLIER SUPERCELLS HAVE GRADUALLY WEAKENED IN INTENSITY
AS CELL MERGERS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS WEST TX SOUTHWEST OF THE
LUBBOCK AREA /AROUND 50 MILES AS OF 0430Z/. A CONTINUALLY COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ACCOUNT FOR A DIMINISHED TORNADO POTENTIAL IN
SPITE OF STRONG SHEAR/SRH. HOWEVER...SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS WIND MAY
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THESE ONGOING WEST TX TSTMS.
FARTHER WEST...OTHER STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS MAY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NM. WHILE THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW...THIS POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A RENEWED SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

..GUYER.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 32310413 34260352 34490183 33720074 31950245 32310413

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