MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2043

ACUS11 KWNS 130452
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130452
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-130615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST-CENTRAL NM AND TX/OK PANHANDLES TO KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 130452Z - 130615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT FROM
EAST-CENTRAL NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF KS...WITH SEVERE HAIL AND WIND POSSIBLE. MONITORING
DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH FOR AREAS INCLUDING FAR
EASTERN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND WESTERN KS.

DISCUSSION...CONSEQUENTIAL FORCING FOR ASCENT/MASS RESPONSE IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT. A SQUALL LINE...LARGELY ELEVATED...CONTINUES TO
MATURE/STEADILY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS AND THE
WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLES AS OF 0445Z. ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE...A 54 KT WIND GUST WAS OBSERVED AT
CLAYTON NM AROUND 0350Z. PER IR SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY...OTHER MORE
RECENT DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING FARTHER SOUTH WITHIN A RESIDUAL
WARM/MOIST SECTOR ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NM. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS RELATIVELY STABLE IN MOST AREAS...A NORTHWARD SHIFTING WARM FRONT
INTO KS OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR NEAR-SURFACE BASED TSTMS FOR AREAS
SUCH AS SOUTHWEST KS AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND FAR EASTERN
NM...WITH A CORRESPONDING STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND/OR SOUTH OF
THE SQUALL LINE...AS A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS
QUICKLY TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD VIA A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET.
IT IS POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD WARRANT A WATCH ISSUANCE
FOR AN OVERNIGHT SEVERE THREAT.

..GUYER/HART.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 38140155 38740099 39889948 39669835 37069898 35640107
34570387 35970356 37280209 38140155

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