MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2080

ACUS11 KWNS 200350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200350
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-200545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CT...RI...ERN MA...ERN LONG ISLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 200350Z - 200545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WEAK TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT OFF THE NE COAST. WEAK SUPERCELLS WITH TRANSIENT
ROTATION WILL RESULT IN A LOW PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO. THERE IS
ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS JUST OFF THE CT/RI/MA COAST HAVE INCREASED OVER
THE PAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG
SLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW. SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT
IS ALSO BEING PROVIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK. THESE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FIELDS ARE
COUNTERED BY A SURFACE INVERSION DEPICTED BY 00Z RAOBS AND VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY. RECENT RADAR/LIGHTNING TRENDS INDICATE THE TSTMS HAVE
BECOME STRONGER OVER THE PAST HOUR. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND AT
LEAST MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THESE STORM POSE A LOW PROBABILITY
TORNADO THREAT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME STRONG WINDS AS
WELL. LOW COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 10/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON 42096996 41497041 41117118 40817240 40957288 41437280
42237239 42677179 42697082 42096996

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