DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021949
SWODY1
SPC AC 021947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT FRI NOV 02 2012

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE IS TO EXTEND THE
THUNDER AREA ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...THE OUTLOOK APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK.

..BROYLES.. 11/02/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT FRI NOV 02 2012/

...S TX...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION
OCCURRING OFFSHORE WITHIN A CONFLUENCE ZONE AHEAD OF A WEAK MIDLEVEL
CIRCULATION. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG A
DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SPARSE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

...MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
A SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND INTO WRN MO OVERNIGHT. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING
LLJ...FOCUSING ASCENT MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/WRN MO AND INTO
SRN IL. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM SHOULD AID IN MUCAPE
VALUES OF 300-500 J/KG...SUPPORTING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY AFTER 03/04Z. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANY HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SVR...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR SVR
PROBABILITIES ATTM.

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