DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 150653
SWODY2
SPC AC 150651

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CST THU NOV 15 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN U.S. FRIDAY. THE SRN BRANCH OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CUT OFF OVER THE SERN STATES...WHILE A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME PREVAILS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...USHERING IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF CP HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ERN STATES. A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY
OVER THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA...BUT MAY SHIFT SLOWLY SWD DURING THE
DAY.

...CNTRL AND S FL...

LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST IN S FL PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE
DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000
J/KG MLCAPE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND IN WARM SECTOR AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A MODEST INVERSION BASED
AROUND 700 MB WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WHICH MAY
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. IT APPEARS ANY
DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT NECESSARY TO MODIFY THIS PROFILE WILL BE
MODEST AND MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY
VORT MAXES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH BASE. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH DIURNAL CYCLE SUGGESTING COVERAGE OF
ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SPARSE.

..DIAL.. 11/15/2012

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