DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 150831
SWODY3
SPC AC 150830

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST THU NOV 15 2012

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

ON SATURDAY A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE SERN STATES
MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INCLUDING A STRONGER HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATER IN THE DAY. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA
OF CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN U.S. AND A WEAK FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF THROUGH CNTRL FL.

...FL PENINSULA...

A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL CHARACTERIZE THE SRN HALF OF
THE FL PENINSULA WHERE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AND DIABATIC
WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. DEEPER ASCENT WITH
VORT MAXES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION SHOULD PROMOTE
MOISTENING AND COOLING OF MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES...SUGGESTING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MUCH GREATER OFFSHORE AND OVER THE GULF STREAM AREA.

...PACIFIC NW COASTAL AREA...

COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK INSTABILITY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL BAND WITH
MORE CELLULAR ACTIVITY PERSISTING IN POST FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE
COAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
APPEARS MORE PROBABLE NEAR THE COAST IN POST FRONTAL ZONE WHERE
STEEPER MID LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST.

..DIAL.. 11/15/2012

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