DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 020456
SWODY3
SPC AC 020455

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT THU NOV 01 2012

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ERN U.S. WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W
COAST. WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL SEWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY...THEN WILL SHIFT EWD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN SC INTO SERN GA...THEN
TRAILING WWD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO CNTRL TX. HEATING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.

...CNTRL AND SRN SC INTO FAR SERN GA...
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG HEATING AS WELL AS CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS MAY PROVE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH MAY FAVOR
A FEW LONG LIVED STORMS. MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GIVEN MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT AND SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...PREDICTABILITY ISSUES WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.

..JEWELL.. 11/02/2012

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