DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 080724
SWODY3
SPC AC 080722

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 AM CST THU NOV 08 2012

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS INTO SWRN IA...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH AN
INTENSE MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPING INTO THE PLAINS. BY
00Z...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
SWRN MN INTO CNTRL NEB AND WRN KS. MODELS FORECAST THE EXIT REGION
OF THE JET TO MOVE NEWD FROM NEB INTO MN...WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BE DEEPER...BUT INSTABILITY WEAKER. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 50S F. A
NARROW ZONE OF HEATING IS FORECAST NEAR THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

...CNTRL KS INTO SRN NEB AND SWRN IA...
MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE FREE OF SEVERE CONVECTION DUE TO CAPPING
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND DRIER AIR WHERE HEATING OCCURS. A NARROW
ZONE OF HEATING IS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FROM NWRN KS
INTO SRN NEB...WHICH WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ERODE
CIN. HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS LIKELY INITIALLY...AND MAY TRANSITION
INTO MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORMS DURING THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES EWD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL EXIST...FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS
WITH A FEW BOWS OR EVEN EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN A LINE. COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL AID IN HAIL FORMATION...IF ONLY MARGINALLY
SEVERE.

THE SEVERE THREAT AREA MAY BE IN A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE DUE TO
STORMS MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT...FAVORING AREAS
WITH ACCESS TO STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM DAYTIME HEATING.
CAPPING WILL LIMIT HOW FAR E THE SEVERE THREAT OCCURS.

..JEWELL.. 11/08/2012

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