DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 080904
SWOD48
SPC AC 080903

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 AM CST THU NOV 08 2012

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ON SUN/D4...A STRONG AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -30 C AS FAR S
AS NRN OK. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SEWD TO A
ST LOUIS TO DALLAS LINE BY AROUND 00Z.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60-65 F RANGE INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. CAPPING
IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE WARM SECTOR DISCRETE CELLS. INSTEAD...A FORCED LINE
OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO EXIST...WHICH WILL HAMPER DESTABILIZATION. SOME
HEATING MAY OCCUR OVER NERN TX...WITH THE BEST SEVERE THREAT OVER
THAT AREA. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE STRONG...THE FILLING SURFACE
TROUGH...CLOUDS...AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ALL
SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD. A FEW BOWING ECHOS
MAY EXIST ALONG THE FRONT...CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR A
BRIEF TORNADO.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD ON MON/D5...BUT SIMILAR STORMS AFFECTING
MS AND AL DURING THE DAY. AGAIN...THE EXPECTED SEVERE COVERAGE
APPEARS TOO LOW.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS FOR THE D6-8 PERIOD
WILL BE NIL.

..JEWELL.. 11/08/2012

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