ACUS11 KWNS 291219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291219
CAZ000-ORZ000-291345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 AM CST THU NOV 29 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN CA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 291219Z - 291345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW-TOPPED TSTMS MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING IN COASTAL AREAS OF
FAR NORTHERN CA. NO CONVECTIVE WATCH IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING...IR SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A
MULTI-SEGMENTED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE STEADILY NEARING THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CA...ROUGHLY 25-45 MILES WEST OF THE COAST AS OF
1215Z. IN SPITE OF VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY...ESTIMATED TO BE LESS
THAN 100 J/KG OF SBCAPE...THE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE IS
WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A SHARP REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT AND EMBEDDED SMALL
BOWING STRUCTURES. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT SOME EMBEDDED UPDRAFTS ARE
STOUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING /PER RECENT TRENDS/...CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING CONVECTIVE LINE. WSR-88D VWP DATA
FROM EUREKA/KBHX IS INDICATIVE OF 60+ KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WITHIN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM.
..GUYER/HART.. 11/29/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA...
LAT...LON 41072502 41922464 42112385 41662356 41032346 40112344
39602405 39972497 41072502
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