DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071241
SWODY1
SPC AC 071239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST MON JAN 07 2013

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD IS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
NRN GULF OF CA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT EWD OVER NWRN
MEXICO AS A 50-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
SPREADS TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...A SLY LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE WRN GOM INTO SRN/CNTRL
TX...LEADING TO THE NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE INTO TX.

...SRN/CNTRL TX...
SURFACE ELYS EMANATING FROM A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL AID IN MAINTAINING
A STABLE NEAR-SURFACE AIRMASS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING SLYS IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE STABLE
LAYER ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NWRN MEXICO. THIS WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING MOISTURE IN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER NWD INTO SRN/CNTRL TX. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO STEEPEN AS THIS OCCURS...WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK MUCAPE VALUES. THIS BUOYANCY COMBINED WITH
MODEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 08/04Z. DUE TO WEAK CAPE VALUES...A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

...SERN AZ...SRN NM...FAR W TX...
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OCCURRING WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
AN UPPER JET WILL SPREAD INTO SERN AZ...SRN NM AND FAR W TX TONIGHT.
THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND A SUBSEQUENT RISK
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTER 08/00Z.

..GARNER/CARBIN.. 01/07/2013

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