ACUS48 KWNS 070904
SWOD48
SPC AC 070903
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 AM CST MON JAN 07 2013
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF STRONG UPPER LOW AS IT EJECTS ACROSS OK INTO LOWER MI
BY THE END OF THE DAY4 PERIOD. MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FOCUSED ZONE OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT A NARROW TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY SPREAD NORTH AHEAD OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THAT COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST CONVECTION WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED POOR LAPSE RATES WILL NOT
INTRODUCE A 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER LOW PROBS MAY BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS AS
ADDITIONAL DATA BECOME AVAILABLE.
..DARROW.. 01/07/2013
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