DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060548
SWODY1
SPC AC 060546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST SAT JAN 05 2013

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC COAST CONTINUES
TO SPLIT. WHILE ONE EMERGING IMPULSE PROGRESSES INLAND ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER
AREA...ANOTHER...WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW...APPEARS LIKELY TO DIG
MORE STRONGLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. ALTHOUGH THE
INTERACTION OF THIS LATTER FEATURE WITH A BELT OF WESTERLIES
EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC MAY COMPLICATE
FORECASTS BEYOND THIS PERIOD...THE VARIOUS MODELS AND MODEL
ENSEMBLES ARE SIMILAR WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW REACHING THE LOWER
COLORADO VALLEY/NORTHERN BAJA/NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION BY
12Z MONDAY. TO THE SOUTH OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
LATTER FEATURE...A BRANCH OF WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIKELY WILL
EXTEND FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ...ON
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
HIGH CENTER. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED
TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS STREAM...WHICH PROBABLY WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO BY AN EMBEDDED EASTWARD PROGRESSING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...WITH
AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT
THE SAME TIME...AS ANOTHER IMPULSE ACCELERATES THROUGH THE LINGERING
BROAD STRONG CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.

...GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA...
PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE DEVELOPING/SOUTHWARD
ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST LOW
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES...MAINLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BECOMES ENHANCED ACROSS INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS OF THE
PENINSULA.

...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...
DESTABILIZATION BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
PROBABLY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE FAVORABLE MIXED PHASE LAYER FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND LIGHTNING
MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL
APPEARS BELOW THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A CATEGORICAL
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR/DISPIGNA.. 01/06/2013

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