DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 060449
SWODY2
SPC AC 060448

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 PM CST SAT JAN 05 2013

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN ROCKIES/TX...

LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...SPECIFICALLY THE 06/00Z
NAM...SUGGEST SWRN U.S. DIGGING UPPER LOW WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER WEST ACROSS NRN MEXICO AT THE END OF THE DAY2 PERIOD THAN
EARLIER FORECAST. WITH MORE MEANINGFUL HEIGHT FALLS NOT EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTH TX UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY3 PERIOD IT APPEARS WEAK
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF ADVANCING COASTAL/WARM FRONT. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE PROSPECT FOR SEVERE SFC-BASED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL
BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST AS
EARLIER INDICATED.

ISOLATED/SCT TSTMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN EXIT REGION OF DIGGING JET
NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER ACROSS SERN AZ/SRN NM INTO FAR WEST TX AS
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION.
OTHERWISE ELEVATED BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
CNTRL/SCNTRL TX ATOP MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS. WHILE CLOUD
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING
UPDRAFTS ACROSS TX FORECAST ELEVATED INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR
ADEQUATE TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL
COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

..DARROW.. 01/06/2013

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