DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101731
SWODY2
SPC AC 101730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO
FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A DEEP WRN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH AS RIDGES
BUILD INTO THE NERN STATES AND ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC INTO AK.
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WRN TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN STATES TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT
THE PROGRESSION AND FURTHER DEAMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKING NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
PA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN UNDERGOING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE NERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL DAY 2 FORECAST FOR A FEW TSTMS IN THE OH
VALLEY REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 2...AND IN NERN TX TO AR
LATE IN THE PERIOD...A THIRD MARGINAL TSTM THREAT AREA HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST.

...OH VALLEY REGION...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MOISTENING WILL OCCUR
ACROSS OH/PA AND MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS. THIS THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD BEFORE
THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH EJECTS ENEWD.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
MODELS SUGGEST A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK WIND SHIFT
EXTENDING FROM SERN LA TO SWRN AL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THIS AREA HAS BEEN ADDED AS A GENERAL TSTM AREA...OVERALL
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WIND SHIFT WILL TEND
TO BE WEAK GIVEN A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WWD INTO THIS REGION AND
THE LACK OF UPPER FORCING. WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH.

...CENTRAL-NERN TX INTO AR/NRN LA...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS INVOF A
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING FROM CENTRAL TX NEWD THROUGH AR. FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO WAA WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA.

..PETERS.. 01/10/2013

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