MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0008

ACUS11 KWNS 101736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101735
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-101900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN MS AND SW AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 2...

VALID 101735Z - 101900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 2 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SRN MS AND SW AL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED TO
THE EAST OF WW 2 WITH THE PROBABILITY OF WW ISSUANCE AT 40 PERCENT.

DISCUSSION...A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
SOUTH OF JACKSON MS TO NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THE LINE OF STORMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SERN
SIDE OF A SRN PLAINS UPPER-LEVEL LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH LIFT FROM
A WELL-DEVELOPED 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ANALYZED JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE QLCS EWD ACROSS
SRN MS INTO SW AL THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE IS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME WITH MLCAPE VALUES
GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG...SOME DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AS SFC
TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID 70S F AROUND MOBILE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WSR-88D VWPS IN SRN MS AND SW AL GENERALLY
SHOW 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SFC. THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN
THE QLCS. A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH STORMS
THAT ROTATE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 01/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 28948873 29638825 30168750 30568684 31208672 31818725
32088833 31988917 31548964 30238997 29128991 28648960
28548911 28948873

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