ACUS03 KWNS 050823
SWODY3
SPC AC 050822
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST SAT JAN 05 2013
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTH TX...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.
DESERTS INTO NRN MEXICO BY 08/12Z. WHILE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE U.S. BORDER...IT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT DIFFLUENT LARGE SCALE FLOW ALOFT WILL
INDUCE A LARGE REGION OF ASCENT ACROSS SOUTH TX AND WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY AT FAIRLY LOW LATITUDES. IT APPEARS A SFC
CYCLONE WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO TO A POSITION NEAR THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD AT LEAST MODIFIED MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST AS SELY LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE RETURN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST NEAR-SFC BASED BUOYANCY IS POSSIBLE AS
MID-UPPER 60S DEW POINTS ADVECT BENEATH GRADUALLY STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE LOW
SEVERE PROBS FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE.
..DARROW.. 01/05/2013
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