DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 050909
SWOD48
SPC AC 050908

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 AM CST SAT JAN 05 2013

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN TO EJECT EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TX DURING THE DAY4-5
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT MOVES THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW INTO CNTRL TX BY 09/12Z
WHILE THE ECMWF IS NEARLY 300 MI WEST OF THIS LOCATION OVER THE BIG
BEND REGION. WHILE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ROTATE THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO EAST TX AT SOME POINT IT/S NOT ENTIRELY
CLEAR WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR. ADDITIONALLY...THE PROSPECT FOR
MEANINGFUL DESTABILIZATION INLAND MAY BE IMPEDED BY SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR. GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES AND POSSIBLE DESTABILIZATION ISSUES WILL NOT OUTLOOK AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE AREA MID WEEK ACROSS TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
HOWEVER LATER MODEL GUIDANCE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLARITY WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SEVERE PROBS ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 01/05/2013

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