DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060439
SWODY1
SPC AC 060436

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CDT FRI APR 05 2013

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDWEST...

A MODEST CORRIDOR OF 60M 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. WHILE STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING MAY AID IN A FEW SFC-BASED TSTMS ALONG COLD
FRONT AFTER 21Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN IA...IT APPEARS THE GREATER
RISK FOR MOIST DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS SRN WI INTO NRN IL.
SHORT-WAVE WILL INDUCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT SHOULD AID IN MID
LEVEL MOISTENING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP
BETWEEN 00-03Z SUCH THAT PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 800-850MB WILL YIELD A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SRN WI INTO PORTIONS OF IL. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF LOWER MI/IND AIDED
IN PART BY STRONG LLJ.


...SERN CO TO NWRN TX...

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS SERN CO/NERN NM INTO NWRN TX
WILL BE DRIVEN MOSTLY BE INTENSE HEAT AND WEAK/NEUTRAL LARGE SCALE
FORCING. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ENCOURAGE A FEW
STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGE OF COLFAX/LAS ANIMAS/UNION
COUNTIES BEFORE WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEAT.

DOWNSTREAM...MODIFIED SLY RETURN FLOW MAY ALLOW UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
SFC DEW POINTS TO ADVANCE NWWD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX INTO
PORTIONS OF NWRN TX ALONG THE DRY LINE NEAR ABI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BREACH 90F BEFORE INHIBITION IS
REDUCED ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION.
IF THIS OCCURS THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ONE OR TWO HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY EXIST NEAR SUNSET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THIS POSSIBILITY AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
WARRANT SEVERE PROBS.


...NRN ROCKIES...

ISOLATED TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES AS VERY COLD TEMPERATURES SPREAD
ACROSS WA INTO NWRN MT. VERY SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS DUE TO THE LOW WBZ LEVELS.

..DARROW/GARNER.. 04/06/2013

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