DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 060537
SWODY2
SPC AC 060536

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT SAT APR 06 2013

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WEST WHILE A SERIES OF
SUBTLE/LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATE FROM THE ROCKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITHIN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME. AT THE
SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD LIE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...WITH WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY ATTEMPTING TO ADVANCE
NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO THE
TX BIG COUNTRY SUN AFTERNOON ARCING NWWD TO A LEE CYCLONE INVOF TX
PANHANDLE.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BENEATH A STOUT
EML...LIKELY YIELDING 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS ALONG THE
DRYLINE/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE BY SUN LATE AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM CNTRL OK SWD TO THE
WRN GULF. ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG CAP WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH
OF THE PBL AND MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...MUCH OF THE GULF HAS
EXPERIENCED SUBSTANTIAL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. RICHER MOISTURE IS NOW CONFINED TO THE CARIBBEAN PER GOES
PW DATA...WITH ONLY A NARROW PLUME OF NEAR 60 SURFACE DEW POINTS
ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST. AS SUCH...SUSPECT THAT GUIDANCE IS
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BY
SUN AFTERNOON.

DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO A COUPLE OF SUBTLE
LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MODERATELY STRONG
MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE APPEAR TO KEY ON KS AS
THE MOST PROBABLE AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHERE THE CAP WILL
BE WEAKER. THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME INVOF
SWRN/CNTRL KS WOULD APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH A
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE/STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS
THREAT WILL BE INCREASINGLY CONDITIONAL WITH SRN EXTENT WITH ONLY A
NARROW SPATIAL CORRIDOR OF WEAKER MLCIN ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
PRONOUNCED CAPPING TO THE E.

..GRAMS.. 04/06/2013

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