ACUS02 KWNS 021732
SWODY2
SPC AC 021730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE APR 02 2013
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW UPPER SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL REMAIN OVER THE U.S. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ESEWD
THROUGH TX...REACHING THE WRN GULF COASTAL REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AT THE SFC AN E-W ORIENTED FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE SERN
U.S. WWD INTO SWRN TX WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH TX. FARTHER
EAST THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OR LIFT NWD TO NEAR THE LA COAST AS
A SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
...S TX...
UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN S TX WARM SECTOR BENEATH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROMOTING MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BUT
ALSO A CAPPING INVERSION AT BASE OF THE EML. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS MIGHT BE ONGOING PRIMARILY NORTH OF
THE FRONT ANYWHERE FROM NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA TO SERN TX. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO REINFORCE THE FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE SWD. ALSO FLOW IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY
VEER TO NNELY WITH TIME AS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE WRN
GULF. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING INITIATION POTENTIAL IN WARM
SECTOR GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MODERATELY STRONG CAP AND ONLY WEAK
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. NEVERTHELESS A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT/OUTFLOWS OR IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXISTING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
SEWD FROM THE RIO GRAND AREA. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
...COASTAL LA...
A SMALL WARM SECTOR MAY MOVE INTO COASTAL LA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WIND PROFILES WILL
STRENGTHEN...AND DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE. WHILE SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...A FEW
ROTATING STORMS MAY EXIST OVER THE WATER...AND POSSIBLY THREATEN
COASTAL AREAS EARLY THU MORNING.
..DIAL.. 04/02/2013
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