MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0369

ACUS11 KWNS 021843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021842
TXZ000-022015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT TUE APR 02 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...BIG BEND REGION OF SWRN TX INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AREA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021842Z - 022015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED. WW
ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...W OF THE LOW
CLOUD DECK WHICH EXTENDS AS FAR WWD AS ROUGHLY VAL VERDE AND
CROCKETT COUNTIES. HERE...AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAS YIELDED MODEST
DESTABILIZATION...RESULTING IN SCATTERED/WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
PER VISIBLE SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A SECONDARY FEATURE CROSSING NWRN
MEXICO...EXPECT A FURTHER INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG
BEND REGION.

WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY W OF THE LOW CLOUD SHIELD MAY
HINDER SEVERE POTENTIAL INITIALLY...MORE FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS E OF THIS REGION SHOULD PERMIT STORMS TO INTENSIFY AS THEY
SHIFT EWD FROM THE INITIATION ZONE. THUS -- WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO INCREASE WITH TIME...WW MAY BE
NEEDED.

..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 04/02/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29610448 30120473 31110385 31510183 31399980 29849986
28730050 29620148 29710246 28910306 29280416 29610448

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