ACUS11 KWNS 262046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262046
KSZ000-NEZ000-262145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 262046Z - 262145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE INVOF
THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
DISCUSSION...RECENT TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED
OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY CO ALONG A WEAK WIND SHIFT THAT HAS SETTLED SWD
ON THE BACKSIDE THE SYNOPTIC LOW SITUATED OVER FAR SWRN NEB. THIS
CONVECTION IS FORMING WEST OF THE DRYLINE WITHIN A HOT AND DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. DEEP-LAYER SWLY STEERING FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVECT THIS DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE DRYLINE WHERE THE CAP IS
WEAKENING WITH ESTIMATED MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. SHOULD
THIS SCENARIO UNFOLD...STORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD ENSUE WITHIN A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT AND 30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH...A RISK FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST GIVEN
STORM DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTENANCE.
..MEAD.. 05/26/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37640064 37850096 38820119 39730113 40000078 39960043
39739984 39029963 38249985 37710024 37640064
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