MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0808

ACUS11 KWNS 262049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262049
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-262145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0808
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...FAR WRN SD...WRN NEB PANHANDLE...NE CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262049Z - 262145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SVR
WINDS/HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASING CB
FIELD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES NWD TO THE BIGHORNS. PERSISTENT SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR CONTINUED LIFT ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN
WITH CONVECTION INITIATION ALREADY NOTED OVER THE BIGHORNS AND BLACK
HILLS. A GRADUAL INCREASE IS EXPECTED SOON ELSEWHERE. LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION IS GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MOIST
ELY FLOW...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S. THESE CONDITIONS BENEATH AN EML WILL YIELD
MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 500-1500 J PER KG/ AND RECENT
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE MOSTLY 20 TO 30
KT. AS SUCH...STORM ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS.
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 42450597 42880613 43460646 44230697 44560700 44930623
44940483 44920414 44590359 43800332 42610332 42090323
41100304 40580287 39660291 39290375 39210483 39560542
40110566 40910583 41630583 42120592 42450597

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