DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101632
SWODY1
SPC AC 101630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF GA AND SC NEWD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TN AND KY...

...SYNOPSIS...
IL/IND UPR LOW EXPECTED TO DEVOLVE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT
CONTINUES E INTO OH BY EVE AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY TUE.
ASSOCIATED BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER TN
TODAY...AND OVERSPREAD THE SRN APPALACHIANS...THE CAROLINAS...AND VA
LATER BY MID-LATE AFTN. AHEAD OF THE LOW...LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... WITH THE
70 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM REACHING SE PA/SRN NJ BY EVE.

SCTD TSTMS...SOME POSSIBLY SVR...WILL OCCUR IN THE MOISTENING
ENVIRONMENT FROM PARTS OF GA NEWD INTO PA/NJ. OTHER STRONG TO SVR
STORMS MAY OCCUR BENEATH THE UPR TROUGH OVER PARTS OF KY AND TN.

FARTHER W...FLAT UPR RIDGE WILL BUILD E/NE ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLNS...WITH ISOLD HIGH-BASED STORMS POSSIBLE FROM ERN CO INTO WRN
KS. ON THE NW FLANK OF THE RIDGE...A BELT OF STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NRN GRT BASIN/NRN RCKYS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PASSING JET STREAK
MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SVR AFTN/EVE STORMS OVER PARTS OF
ID...WY...AND MT.

...NE GA TO PA/NJ THIS AFTN/EVE...
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM
LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS BANDS AND
SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS BY EARLY AFTN IN MOISTENING/WEAKLY-CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT FROM PARTS OF GA/SC NEWD INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.


AREA HODOGRAPHS...ALREADY SEASONABLY LENGTHY...MAY FURTHER LENGTHEN
AS BELT OF 40-50 KT SWLY MID-LVL FLOW OVERSPREADS
REGION...SUGGESTING LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS/LEWPS/SMALL BOWS WITH
NARROW SWATHS OF DMGG WINDS. WHILE LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN LIMITED EXCEPT NEAR DIFFUSE WARM FRONT IN SRN PA/ERN
MD/DE/NJ...IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING THIS
EVE/EARLY TNGT.

...MIDDLE/ERN TN AND SRN KY THIS AFTN/EVE...
SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF
TN AND KY TODAY...IN BASE OF MID-LVL TROUGH WHERE
40+ KT WLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL EXIST ATOP LOW-LVL THETA-E
AXIS. SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A CLUSTER OF STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO
ONE OR TWO BANDS THAT COULD INCLUDE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTN...DMGG
WIND.

...NRN RCKYS LATE THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
SFC HEATING...COOL MID-LVL TEMPS...AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN
ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK MOVING FROM NRN MT INTO NRN ND SHOULD
SUPPORT SCTD TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN ID...NW
WY...AND SW MT. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...50+ KT WSWLY
DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. A FEW
STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY A SPOT OR TWO OF
HAIL.

..CNTRL HIGH PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
VERY STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER ERN CO...SE WY...WRN
NEB...AND WRN KS ON SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS. WHILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...RELATIVELY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS WILL YIELD SIZABLE BUOYANCY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH SHOULD FOSTER WDLY SCTD HIGH-BASED
DIURNAL STORMS. THESE SHOULD MOVE E OR ESE INTO THE EVE...AND MAY
MERGE INTO A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO WITH ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS AND
SMALL HAIL. ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS MAY FORM ALONG SEPARATE SEGMENT
OF LEE TROUGH OVER NE NM...SE CO...SW KS...AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLE
REGION...WHERE ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO MAY OCCUR.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 06/10/2013

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